Trending Signals
For instances when the currency is trending, the moving average envelopes generate signals in a very different way. A trader would use prices penetrating the upper boundary to initiate long position because this can be an indication that the trend is strong and prices will continue rising. If prices penetrate the lower boundary it can be taken as a signal to initiate short positions. The reliability of using this technique is very poor and can give many false signals. The envelope’s breaches may be used as a way to identify the strength of new trends, and to identify them in general, but should not be used as actual buy and sell signals.
Forex traders can benefit from experimenting with moving averages envelopes, which help spot trends after they develop. Moving Average Envelopes consist of a moving average plus and minus a certain user defined percentage deviation. The Moving Average Envelope Indicator adds an extra feature to the regular moving average analysis.
They can be used as bands around price action that signify over bought and oversold levels and can also be used as price targets.

Moving Average Envelope

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Interpreting the Moving Average Envelopes

Interpretation

If the currency’s price is above the moving average, and touching or crossing the upper envelope boundary for an extended time, it is in an uptrend.

If the currency’s price is hugging the bottom envelope border for an extended time then the currency is in a downtrend.

When the price is oscillating between the two boundaries in a cyclical pattern, or moving sideways, then the currency is in a trading range.
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Construction
The Envelopes are constructed by making bands above and below a given moving average at fixed percentages. These bands will be parallel lines to the average. Below, I used a 1% envelope around a 13 day moving average.
A trader will have to adjust the percentage depending on the currency pair and the timeframe he is looking at. One should try and have 90 percent of prices within the envelopes. The Moving Average Envelope indicator creates signals differently depending on whether the currency is trending or trading within a range.
Trading Range:

Envelopes can be used during forex trading ranges as they will tell a trader when the currency is over bought or oversold within that range.
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Traders Time Horizons
This technique is more appropriate for short term investors as they are best positioned to take advantages of these cyclical changes. The technique stops working if the currency breaks out of its trading range and begins a new trend. In the first half of the above figure, even though price touches the lower boundary, it would be very inopportune to buy there as the price keeps going down and makes new lows (and the trader would incur a loss).
To avoid getting losses when using this technique a trader should place stop losses at the previous low when buying or going long (2 & 4), and at the previous high when selling or taking a short position (1 & 3).
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Forex Trading > Moving Average Based Indicators > Moving Average Envelope
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